The comparative cost-effectiveness of interventions is a fundamental consideration of health technology assessment (HTA) in the UK.1 The use of modelling to extrapolate benefits to patients and costs over a specified time period is a common technique in cost-effectiveness analyses. All modelling techniques, by their nature, are subject to different levels of uncertainty. Assessment and understanding of the level and impact of this uncertainty is a fundamental part of the decision-making process. In this article, we build on our previous article A guide to health economic evaluations and discuss different modelling approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis and the importance of uncertainty.2
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